Dave- I agree with your general premises about O'Malley's interview content. I counter, with two items. The Democrats are bedwetters and PERHAPS (not saying this is definitely true) she IS talking to a bunch of Democratic children who think there is a monster under every bed and has to be this pedantic and "reassuring" and just say anything to shut them up. Second, Trump's little Nazi rally at MSG was a "self-own" that allows the Democrats to go back on the attack (as we all agree they SHOULD be doing rather than rationalizing away why their strategy is so great). We have been handed dozens of quotes with slurs against Latinos, African Americans, Jews, and they even called Harris a C@nt. This was a much needed gift given how crappy that messaging WAS and perhaps they will pounce on it to increase turnout amongst women, latinos, african emericam and youth. Within minutes there were TikToks of 18 year old girls who seemed to have never heard the Access Hollywood tapes playing this in the background, outcry from Latino influencers etc. Hopefully this is the message that is delivered at door knocks all this week to get turnout to increase in the "exponential" fashion we want in GA, NC and PA.
Hi Dave, Your empirical analysis is hugely appreciated. I pray that this week there will be a surge of Democrats to the polls and they will build a significant buffer ahead of ED. Should it come down to ED itself, am I correct in saying that you think Trump will win because Republicans will vote in higher numbers on ED? It's claimed that the GOTV is so much better for the Democrats than Republicans, why would it fail to get voters to the polls, when polls suggest a higher enthusiasm amongst Harris than Trump voters? Are we overstating GOTV efforts? Many thanks, Russ.
It is alarming however id like to point out one data point in regards to PA. Based on 2020 and 2022, it does seem like dems vote on Election Day at a higher rate than that national poll would say. Biden received 40% of his vote on Election Day when dems were being encouraged to VBM. Fettermen received 66% of his vote on Election Day. We will see how it pans out, I just wanted to bring that to your attention since you said there is no data to suggest high dem turnout on Election Day in PA.
On the otherhand Dave is right to sound the warning bells that early voting for Dems is very sluggish right now outside of Michigan and Wisconsin in an election where the Democratic base is supposed to ramped up and chomping at the bit to get the polls. This is not just a PA thing but elsewhere.
The problem I can't get over is I feel like it is either good or bad to be behind or ahead. I can't get over it being bad in Georgia that Dems are behind but bad as well in PA where Dems are ahead. I feel like that is trying to predict too much about voter behavior. At this point I would still rather be the Democrats with a majority of the votes in PA to date than the Republicans. Would I like a much "bigger" lead in Pennsylvania? Well who doesn't.
Right now Republicans need to add almost 400,000 more votes than Democrats over the course of the rest of early voting and election day just to make it tied in Pennsylvania. Would I rather be a Republicans or Democrat right now? The answer is easy for me Democrat.
I made an alternative case on my Substack to Dave's arguing that PA Democrats as a state party are at record strength compared to other Democratic state parties in places like Ohio, Florida, and Georgia even with the drop in voter registration. I don't know if I am right but I find it a compelling argument.
Dave- I agree with your general premises about O'Malley's interview content. I counter, with two items. The Democrats are bedwetters and PERHAPS (not saying this is definitely true) she IS talking to a bunch of Democratic children who think there is a monster under every bed and has to be this pedantic and "reassuring" and just say anything to shut them up. Second, Trump's little Nazi rally at MSG was a "self-own" that allows the Democrats to go back on the attack (as we all agree they SHOULD be doing rather than rationalizing away why their strategy is so great). We have been handed dozens of quotes with slurs against Latinos, African Americans, Jews, and they even called Harris a C@nt. This was a much needed gift given how crappy that messaging WAS and perhaps they will pounce on it to increase turnout amongst women, latinos, african emericam and youth. Within minutes there were TikToks of 18 year old girls who seemed to have never heard the Access Hollywood tapes playing this in the background, outcry from Latino influencers etc. Hopefully this is the message that is delivered at door knocks all this week to get turnout to increase in the "exponential" fashion we want in GA, NC and PA.
Hi Dave, Your empirical analysis is hugely appreciated. I pray that this week there will be a surge of Democrats to the polls and they will build a significant buffer ahead of ED. Should it come down to ED itself, am I correct in saying that you think Trump will win because Republicans will vote in higher numbers on ED? It's claimed that the GOTV is so much better for the Democrats than Republicans, why would it fail to get voters to the polls, when polls suggest a higher enthusiasm amongst Harris than Trump voters? Are we overstating GOTV efforts? Many thanks, Russ.
It is alarming however id like to point out one data point in regards to PA. Based on 2020 and 2022, it does seem like dems vote on Election Day at a higher rate than that national poll would say. Biden received 40% of his vote on Election Day when dems were being encouraged to VBM. Fettermen received 66% of his vote on Election Day. We will see how it pans out, I just wanted to bring that to your attention since you said there is no data to suggest high dem turnout on Election Day in PA.
On the otherhand Dave is right to sound the warning bells that early voting for Dems is very sluggish right now outside of Michigan and Wisconsin in an election where the Democratic base is supposed to ramped up and chomping at the bit to get the polls. This is not just a PA thing but elsewhere.
The problem I can't get over is I feel like it is either good or bad to be behind or ahead. I can't get over it being bad in Georgia that Dems are behind but bad as well in PA where Dems are ahead. I feel like that is trying to predict too much about voter behavior. At this point I would still rather be the Democrats with a majority of the votes in PA to date than the Republicans. Would I like a much "bigger" lead in Pennsylvania? Well who doesn't.
Right now Republicans need to add almost 400,000 more votes than Democrats over the course of the rest of early voting and election day just to make it tied in Pennsylvania. Would I rather be a Republicans or Democrat right now? The answer is easy for me Democrat.
I made an alternative case on my Substack to Dave's arguing that PA Democrats as a state party are at record strength compared to other Democratic state parties in places like Ohio, Florida, and Georgia even with the drop in voter registration. I don't know if I am right but I find it a compelling argument.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-150818586
In regards to the MSG rally….WOW!
What strategy intentionally shits on PR’s?