I was actually going to mention Norpoth's model in this article, but I have no idea how it works this year since you had two, essentially, uncontested primaries. And Harris wasn't on the ticket in New Hampshire.
The problem with Licthmann is that he just lists criteria, many of which is subjective. I don't call it a model as much as I do a "list of things to check". My Ford Pinto analogy really applies to Litchmann.
The problem with my model is that it can only start once early voting starts, and I need to have access as to how many voters (and from which parties) have voted. I know that in Florida, but not other elections. Maybe I'll do some research.
I was actually going to mention Norpoth's model in this article, but I have no idea how it works this year since you had two, essentially, uncontested primaries. And Harris wasn't on the ticket in New Hampshire.
The problem with Licthmann is that he just lists criteria, many of which is subjective. I don't call it a model as much as I do a "list of things to check". My Ford Pinto analogy really applies to Litchmann.
The problem with my model is that it can only start once early voting starts, and I need to have access as to how many voters (and from which parties) have voted. I know that in Florida, but not other elections. Maybe I'll do some research.