"The other questions is whether Florida’s demographics have really changed, and has it become more Republican. Because of the Democrats laziness to register and turn out voters, we really can’t say if this is the case." Right question but blindly accepting "Active Voter" statistics misses the impact of "list maintenance" (AKA "the purge"). A huge number of Democrats were shifted from "Active" to "Inactive" status and smaller, but still significant number completely dropped from the voter rolls.
What happened? My guess is spike in rents lead to "crisis moves" with people "forwarding" their snail mail rather than filing a full blown "change of address" The difference is that verification mail (using do not forward) from the County Supervisor of Elections off would have bounced without a new address.
Other thing...maybe Republicans (being older) might use the snail mail more than Democrats. I rarely use regular mail. If I received a notification, I might accidently throw it in the garbage.
I agree right up until the end:
"The other questions is whether Florida’s demographics have really changed, and has it become more Republican. Because of the Democrats laziness to register and turn out voters, we really can’t say if this is the case." Right question but blindly accepting "Active Voter" statistics misses the impact of "list maintenance" (AKA "the purge"). A huge number of Democrats were shifted from "Active" to "Inactive" status and smaller, but still significant number completely dropped from the voter rolls.
What happened? My guess is spike in rents lead to "crisis moves" with people "forwarding" their snail mail rather than filing a full blown "change of address" The difference is that verification mail (using do not forward) from the County Supervisor of Elections off would have bounced without a new address.
Other thing...maybe Republicans (being older) might use the snail mail more than Democrats. I rarely use regular mail. If I received a notification, I might accidently throw it in the garbage.