Poll Watcher: Are Republicans more pro-choice?
Three state polls released over the last week show differences between presidential and US Senate races.
Starting today, and each Wednesday from this point forward, I’ll be looking at the polls that have been released over the last week. Most of the polls are going to be statewide polls, but some might be national as well. If you want to get the latest post from Voting Trend, please subscribe today by clicking below.
The Topline
This week, we’ll be looking at three polls that were released over the last week. The first poll we’ll be looking at is one out of Minnesota done by SurveyUSA, and sponsored by KSTP in Minneapolis, WDIO in Duluth, and KAAL in Rochester, which delved into both the presidential and U.S. Senate race in the state. The other two polls were conducted by YouGov and sponsored by CBS News, polling both the presidential and U.S. Senate races in Arizona and Florida.
Minnesota
While Joe Biden only has a 2% lead in the polls over Donald Trump in Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar is winning by 14%. If we look at voters that say that they are “certain” to vote, Klobuchar extends her lead to 15%, while Biden extends his lead to 3%.
While this poll doesn’t go too in depth, there are some interesting numbers that pop out, and seem to be counterintuitive to Democratic messaging, especially when it comes to Donald Trump.
SurveyUSA asked Trump voters if Trump is found guilty in the “hush-money trial”, would you still vote for Trump, vote for Biden, vote for someone else, not vote at all or not sure. Of course, 88% of Trump voters said that they would stay with Trump. What’s interesting is that 0% said that they would vote for Biden. Rarely do you ever see 0% in a poll at all! Unfortunately, SurveyUSA didn’t ask undecideds how they would vote. Still, only 5% of voters identified themselves as “undecided”, thus meaning the hush-money trail will have extremely minimal, if any, impact on the race…in Minnesota at least.
That being said, where is Klobuchar doing better compared to Biden? The first group of voters are those who identify as “moderates”, with Klobuchar polling at 54% compared to Biden’s 46%. Another extremely interesting number is among Trump voters in 2020. Of those voters, 11% plan to vote for Klobuchar, with 72% planning to vote for her Republican opponent Joe Fraser. If we look at Biden, 89% of Trump voters are sticking with Trump with only 2% crossing over to Biden.
Also among Minnesota’s 2020 Trump voters, 12% identify themselves as “undecided” in the Senate race. This might be good news for Democrats, as it indicates that 2020 Trump voters might only be top-of-the-ticket voters that don’t plan to vote down-ballot.
Finally, on the issue of abortion, 18% of 2020 Biden voters consider it the “most important issue” with only 3% of 2020 Trump voters saying so. With that, abortion is purely a base issue and not a persuasion issue. This is a trend that we are seeing in other states as well. The economy is, by far, the most important issue at 28%.
Arizona
As with Minnesota, we see a large gap between the presidential and U.S. Senate races. For president, Trump is leading Biden 52% to 47%. However, Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego is leading Kari Lake 49% to 36%. Contrary to the Minnesota poll, which see both Klobuchar and Fraser greatly diverging from the presidential candidates (Klobuchar up and Fraser down), Gallego is only performing 2% better than Biden. It’s Kari Lake that’s taking the hit, 16% worse than Trump.
This really does beg the question…"Can a candidate be too crazy?” Is Lake’s candidacy where Arizona voters say “nope, that’s a bridge too far”? Well, it could be the case, but it could also be what we are seeing in Minnesota as well, that Trump voters might be more top-of-the-ticket voters than down-ballot voters.
What’s interesting is that we do see similarities between Kari Lake and Joe Fraser in Minnesota in regards to where their support comes from. As for those who identify as Republicans, Lake only has 73% support, the same level as Fraser. Of those Republicans, 12% are voting for Gallego, the same numbers as those supporting Klobuchar. Both Klobuchar and Gallego are dominating among independents, and the same can be said with moderate voters.
Moving on, let’s look at what Arizonans consider issues that are a “major factor” in determining their vote. Of course, the economy is #1 with 82% of Arizona voters saying it is a “major factor”, closely followed by inflation at 78%. Both of those issues are not the Democrat’s strong point right now, even if MSNBC wheels out Steven Rattner every few days with his charts telling people that “everything’s fine”. And while many Arizonans consider their financial situation good (at 50% according to the poll), 77% say that the prices of goods and services are going up. This is uniformed along all parties and ideologies, with Democrats and liberal polling a little less, which is another possible on-coming train wreck that Democrats need to face (which will be discussed in another post in the near future).
Another economic factor is affordable housing. Forty-two percent of Arizonans say that housing is “very unaffordable”, with 38% saying “somewhat unaffordable”. For some reason, many Democrats are staying away from this issue like stinking cabbage. Personally, I think this could be the issue that turns Democratic fortunes around, but nobody is talking about it.
Furthermore, when it comes to the economy, 52% of Arizonans feel that their economic situation is going to get worse under a second Biden Administration, while only 35% say so for Trump. Again, if these are the issues that are driving voters, then Biden is underwater.
Luckily for Democrats, “the state of democracy” polls at 70%, making it a strong Democratic turnout message. But other traditional Democratic issues like abortion (51%), climate change (39%), and issues of race and diversity (31%) are very low on voters’ minds. However, Democrats continue to focus on these issues, which only seems to be mobilizing the base instead of persuading voters.
While only 51% of Arizona voters consider abortion a “major factor” in their vote choice, Democrats really need to come to grips with the reality that abortion is no longer determining vote choice on a partisan basis. More Republicans are becoming pro-choice, making it a moot issue. When asked if abortion should be legal in Arizona, 45% of Republicans say it should be legal in all or most cases. When asked if there was an amendment on the ballot establishing the constitutional right to an abortion in Arizona, 43% of Republicans said they would vote yes, while only 38% saying no, which is a clear plurality for the “yes” side.
Florida
We actually see a lot of similarities between the Arizona and Florida polls. When it comes to the “major factors” determining vote choice in Florida, the economy and inflation are the top two , with abortion being 7th on that list. As a matter a fact, Florida voters consider the U.S-Mexico border to be a more pressing issue than abortion, even though Florida doesn’t border Mexico!
When looking at the horserace for president and the U.S. Senate race, it’s unlike Minnesota and Arizona. In the case of Florida, both Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Republican Rick Scott perform worse than their presidential counterparts. Mucarsel-Powell’s support is 8% less than Biden’s support, and for Scott it is 9% less that Trump. The reason for this decline is the number of undecided voters in the state. Basically, voters have their minds made up on the presidential level, but not the senate level.
The economic numbers for Florida are quite similar to the numbers in Arizona, so I’m not going to repeat them here. Instead, we are going to talk about the issue of abortion. As mentioned when talking about Arizona, Florida Republicans are becoming more pro-choice. On the ballot is Amendment 4, which would establish the constitutional right to an abortion. When asked if they would vote “yes” or “no” on the amendment, 43% of Republican voters said “yes”, with 34% of Republicans saying “no”. Again, this is a plurality of Republicans supporting the amendment. In addition, of those who identify as “conservative”, “yes” only loses by 5%, with “no” having a slight 41% to 36% advantage.
Unlike Arizona and Minnesota Democrats, who have diversified their issues of focus, Democrats have put all of their chips on the abortion issue (which you can read more about here). But if more Republicans are identifying as pro-choice, those Republicans will probably not find their way over to support Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s candidacy. Instead, there will be a lot of voters who vote for Trump and Scott, and then switch over to the “yes” side on the constitutional amendment. Essentially, why would a “yes” voter switch to the Democrats if they have the amendment there to protect the right to an abortion? For them, it’s purely a case of having the best of both worlds.
The Democrats in Florida being laser-focused on abortion will probably be their undoing. Like with Arizona, housing is a big issue, with 50% of Floridians saying that housing is “very unaffordable” in the state, and 32% saying “somewhat unaffordable”. And with home-owners insurance and rentals also being high, this could help Democrats out. But nope, nothing.
Curious how you think these trends affect turnout. Since I know you are a turnout specialist. This election seems more inclined to turn completely based on turnout, with two relatively unpopular candidates.