Florida Democrats focus on abortion. Will it work?

With Florida Democrats laser-focusing on abortion, will that be enough to get them over the top?

No.

I know that’s the short answer, but it’s the correct one. In addition to why it’s statistically impossible for Democrats to win statewide in Florida right now, the messaging is too specific.

With the new 6-week abortion ban now in effect, the saliency of the abortion issue in the state has increased. Overall in Florida, voters think that the new abortion restriction is too harsh. According to an Emerson College poll taken last month, 57.3% of registered Floridians think that the new abortion ban is too strict. However, only 55.9% of those voters are voting for Democratic US Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, with 31.2% of those voters picking Rick Scott. Those numbers are mirrored when looking at the upcoming ballot measure regarding abortion access, with 55.9% of Mucarsel-Powell voters voting for the measure, as well as 31.2% of Scott voters.

This plays into the biggest problem that Democrats have had since taking on identity politics as their campaign strategy, which is the “if we talk about (insert identity issue here), then we will win (insert identity demographic here)” problem. Democrats have this ill-guided misconception that immigration = Hispanic voters, civil rights = black voters, and now abortion = women voters. But according to the Emerson College poll, 40% of female voters support Mucarsel-Powell, while 42% support Scott. Oops.

Laser-focusing on specific issues can be a recipe for disaster. This usually pigeonholes a campaign on one issue, while making the other issues seem less important. It’s the political equivalent to “putting all your chips on #18”, though the chances of hitting #18 are extremely slim.

What further exacerbates the problem is that most of the voters aren’t focusing on the abortion issue in the first place. According to Emerson College, only 16.2% of registered Democrats in the State of Florida consider abortion access to the the most important issue facing the state, with housing affordability and the economy being considered more important. If we look at independent voters, 11.3% consider abortion access the most important issue, with Republicans only at 2.8%. Overall only 9.6% of registered voters in Florida consider abortion the “most important issue”. It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to figure out that 90% of Florida voters find other issues more pressing.

This is where the problem with Democrats understanding issue saliency comes into play. Yes, the electorate might agree with you on a particular issue, like abortion access. However, whether that issue is important to voters is a different story. For example, “chocolate ice cream” might have a very high favorable rating, but would you campaign on the issue of “chocolate ice cream”? No, because it isn’t important to voters. Issue saliency, and understanding what’s on the voter’s minds, has always been Democrat’s Achilles Heel.

This also goes to the point that Democrats are too “issue-focused”. Go to any political science conference (MPSA or APSA) with a bunch a behaviorists, and one of the biggest jokes is that “issues matter”. This goes all the way back to The American Voter, or Michigan Model, that argues that voting is purely a partisan act, forged by previously and current life experiences, and not spatial voting, which argues a voter’s proximity to an issue determines vote choice. However, Democrats don’t realize this, and continue to think in a spatial voting matter. This is the reason why Democrats can’t understand why a Trump supporter will still stick with Trump or the Republicans, even when presented with evidence that both are against their personal interests.

The reason I mention voting behavior is because Democratic messaging in this Senate race is totally issue-focused. Yes, issues can be connected to identity, but issues aren’t always identity. For example, the economy isn’t an identity-driven issue. Everyone wants a good economy, and you would be hard pressed to find someone who “supports a bad economy”. As for abortion, it is an identity and cultural issue. Therefore, Democrats can’t make the argument based on the interests of everyone.

Republicans are good at this. Who can argue against “Make America Great”. I mean, the “Again” part might be debatable, but the overall message still stands. Republicans are masters of creating a catchy slogan that encapsulates the overall feeling of the electorate, while Democrats focus on one or two issues in a “put all their money on #18” manner.

That doesn’t mean that there haven’t been any Democrats who haven’t taken this approach. Bill Clinton’s “I come from a little place called Hope”, and Barack Obama’s “There isn’t red states and blue states, but the United States” are exactly the kind of messaging that Democrats need right now. But in Florida, at least, they are putting all of their chips on an issue that only drives the base.