Some signs Harris is solidifying Hispanic support in latest poll.
The most recent CBS/YouGov poll indicates that lukewarm Hispanic supporters of Biden are more bullish on Harris.
Over the weekend, CBS and YouGov dropped a poll which showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a 1% lead over Donald Trump. To put that in perspective, the last time that any YouGov poll had the Democrat in the lead over Trump was back on January 30th, with Biden having a 1% lead. However, since the last poll CBS/YouGov poll, a 3% swing now favors the Democrats.
When looking at the crosstabs, we start to see Harris solidifying Hispanic support. While the numbers of Hispanic voters likely to vote for Harris hasn’t really change from Biden’s numbers (at 52% for both in the CBS polls), other metrics show that Harris’s support is much strong.
First, let’s look at non-Harris Hispanic voters, which makes up 48% of the overall Hispanic vote. When asked if they would consider voting for Biden back on July 16-18, only 10% said that they would at least consider Biden. When asked the same question on July 30-August 1st, 23% said that they would at least consider Harris. Therefore, Harris has a better change to peel off Trump voters, and possibly making states like Nevada and Arizona more likely to go blue, if the CBS poll is correct.
Next, let’s look at reasons for voting for Harris and Biden. Back in mid-July, when asked “What is the main reason you would vote for Joe Biden over Donald Trump?” among likely Biden voters, only 18% of Hispanic voters said they were voting for Joe Biden because they liked Biden. With Harris, that number is up to 36%! Yep, double! No other metric regarding this question saw a sharper increase.
Unfortunately, the previous Biden poll was more focused on Trump and the assassination attempt on him in Pennsylvania (or was it Ohio? I don’t even remember anymore), so there are not really many more comparable questions. Hopefully polls in the next few days will shed some light on whether Hispanic voters are indeed starting to trend toward Kamala Harris.
Watch this space.