Picking a VP from a swing state is rare, and rarely works.

Many in the Democratic consultancy circles seem to think that "state" matters most. History says otherwise.

The Democratic Party is weak when it comes to vice presidential candidates. And while a weak, useless VP might not do much to hurt the ticket, picking the wrong candidate can backfire. Seriously, how did Walter Mondal help or hurt Jimmy Carter, same thing with Bob Dole and Gerald Ford. Of course, Sarah Palin is the best example of getting the VP pick wrong.

Still, one of the biggest myths that there is when it comes to picking a vice presidential candidate is that they need to be from a “swing state”. And many of you know, the theory goes that a ticket will do better in that state if they get a candidate from that state. To me, this is the only reason why Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, or Roy Cooper are even being mentioned. And please, NOT Roy Cooper!

But if we look at back history, having a vice presidential candidate from a “state” really doesn’t matter. If there is any case where it did play a role, it was in 1960, which helped John F. Kennedy win the election by securing Texas with the help of Lyndon Johnson. But when Michael Dukakis tried to use that same playbook, it didn’t work out so well.

In an overwhelming majority of elections, where the vice presidential candidate comes from hasn’t really played a factor. So let’s look at the elections since 1964.

1964: Johnson was going to win anyway, so Humphrey being from Minnesota didn’t mater. Goldwater’s running mate, Walter Phillips, didn’t do anything either. As a matter of fact, he did so little I just make up that name. It was actually William E. Miller from New York…or was it?

1968: Did Spiro Agnew (either in 1968 or 1972) help Nixon at all? Yes, he was from Maryland, but Humphrey won Maryland. Ed Muskie, on the other had, might have helped Humphrey win Maine, but that was a measly four electoral votes.

1972: Didn’t really matter because Nixon was going to win. Still, where was Sargent Shriver actually “from”?

1976: Minnesota was going to go for Carter and Kansas was going to go for Ford, so they didn’t matter.

1980: Again, where was George H. W. Bush actually “from”? Also, Democrats were going to win Minnesota anyway.

1984: Reagan was going to win, so it didn’t matter who Mondale picked. If any choice was a DEI choice, Geraldine Ferraro was it (though she was accomplished).

1988: I already mentioned Lloyd Bentsen, which didn’t help Dukakis in Texas. And Dan Quayle…bad choice but Bush wasn’t going to lose Indiana anyway.

1992: Bill Clinton picking Al Gore might have helped them secure southern voters, but the south still hadn’t gone full-blow GOP yet. If anything, Gore helped by providing a candidate that showed that they could take over on Day One. Being from Tennessee only mattered on the margins.

1996: Jack Kemp wasn’t going to win New York for Bob Dole.

2000: Connecticut was already going to be won by Al Gore. If anything, Joe Lieberman was picked to win the Jewish vote in Florida. If Democrats really wanted to win Florida, they should have picked Bob Graham.

2004: Yes, John Edwards could have been picked because he was from North Carolina, but he was primarily picked because he finished 2nd in the primaries and showed that he could win votes nationwide.

2008: Obama was easily going to win Delaware. Same thing with McCain and Alaska.

2012: Paul Ryan “might” have been picked because he was from Wisconsin, but Obama won the state by nearly 7%. Ryan was already high-profile anyway, and I think the Romney campaign was trying to recapture what Clinton-Gore did in 1992.

2016: Democrats would have probably won Virginia with or without Tim Kaine. Republicans were going to win Indiana anyway, and Mike Pence was the only one that was willing to risk going on, what looked like at the time, the sinking ship of Donald Trump.

2020: Democrats were easily going to win California, same with Pence and Indiana.