He's guilty...now what?

What have the polls said about how voters will handle a Trump conviction?

Over the last few months, polling firms have asked voters about how a Trump guilty or not guilt verdict would impact their vote. Up until now, asking any voter about their intention was purely hypothetical, with the scale of any conviction not really being felt. But now that we are here, and 34 felony convictions have crashed down on the former president, what is the likelihood that this will change the trajectory of the election. Let’s look at what some of the most recent polls have said.

In the latest Emerson College poll (in the field May 21-23, MoE +/-2.9%), only 9.3% of Donald Trump voters said that they were less likely to vote for Trump if he was convicted in New York. On the other hand, 14.1% of Biden voters said they were more likely to vote for Trump if convicted, which is odd to say the least. For those who are currently undecided, however, only 11% say that they are more likely to vote for him with 28.8% saying that they are less likely. With that, we can see that this conviction could matter to the voters that could be deciding this election.

If we break those numbers down into 2020 vote choice, 16% of 2020 Biden voters say that they are more likely to vote for Trump, while only 10.8% of 2020 Trump voters say they would less likely vote for him. Again, it’s those who voted for someone else (23.3%) or didn’t vote (24.8%) that show larger numbers. According to Emerson, partisans are dug in, and this isn’t having much of an impact.

In the most recent NRP/PBS NewsHour Marist poll (in the field May 21-23, MoE +/-3.4%), we see pretty much the same, which is not much movement. Of those who voted in 2020, 6% of Biden voters said that they would more likely vote for Trump, while only 6% 2020 Trump voters said they were less likely. Essentially, there seems to be an equal tradeoff of those who are more or less likely to vote for Trump based on his conviction.

However, if we look at the recent Marquette University poll, we do see a shift in behavior. When asked whether voters would vote for Trump or Biden, 40% of respondents say Biden with 44% Trump, and 14% undecided. When asked if Trump was found not guilty, Trump improved 44% to 38%. However, when asked if Trump was found guilty, Biden jumps into the lead with 43% to 39%. However, there is a lot of “missing data” regarding these two last polls, without and real justification for the missing data. Therefore, this really isn’t a great indicator.

Finally, in the latest Quinnipiac poll, 21% of registered voters said that they are less likely to vote for Trump, while 11% are more likely. Both of these numbers have gone down over the last few months, but both show that the “less likely” number is double the number of “more likely”.

So, where does this put the state of the election? It’s too early to tell because the verdict has been a hypothetical up to this point. In addition, adding the number “34” to the number of felonies might also raise a few eyebrows. But as of right now, the conviction doesn’t help Trump, and looks like it will do more harm than good. How much harm will it inflict? As of right now, just very slightly, but the polls in the coming days and weeks should clear up this already extremely murky water.