Five ways Walz's entry shapes the 2024 election.

The dynamic of this campaign has change, and so has the focus.

Now that we’ve had a few hours to let it sink in, let’s discuss how Walz being selected as the Democratic candidate for vice president can change the dynamic of this election.

Making the campaign more Midwest Progressive

I originally had this last on my list, but I think that I need to put this first, because this rhetorical bullshit needs to be dealt with.

Over the last number of years, I’ve heard a lot of people talking about how Democrats “can’t have a progressive”. First of all, most of these people are either former Republicans (the Never Trump grifters) , or Democratic coastal elites. And as a Midwesterner myself, none of these people know fuck all about the Midwest, especially the rural Midwest (where I live now).

What these people want to do is conflate the ideas of the left in general and simply call that “progressive”. Basically, they want to put the Medicare for All group in the same group as Black Lives Matter. But that simply isn’t how it works. Midwestern Progressivism is different.

So, what is “Midwestern Progressivism”. We (because I fall into this group) are New Deal Democrats who believe in a strong national security, are more conservative on social views, as well as on immigration. Essentially, we are the old “Reagan Democrats” (a term coined by Stan Greenberg regarding voters in Macomb County, Michigan).

Also, we Midwestern Progressives hate woke politics. I can’t stress this enough! If you want to know why people have been moving toward the GOP here in the Midwest, there’s you go.

What’s most important here is that Midwestern Progressives are New Deal Democrats. We believe in a strong social safety nets. Hence one of the things that you hear a lot about regarding Tim Walz is his universal free school meal program, something that harps back to the days of New Deal thinking. This is why a strong progressive economic message is the winning ticket for the Democrats.

To drive this point home, let’s look at the 2016 Democratic Primary. With the exception or rural Ohio, Bernie Sanders dominated the Midwest. He won 68% in Kansas, 57% in Nebraska, 49.7% in Michigan (which he won), 56.6% in Wisconsin, 52.5% in Indiana, 61.6% of the open caucus in Minnesota, and within 0.2% in the Iowa Caucus for delegates, and 2% in Illinois. Both Illinois and Indiana were states that Sanders didn’t even compete in. And remember, Sanders is a guy from New York/Vermont. Had that been a Midwestern candidate with the same values, it would have been a landslide for that candidate.

Focusing on a Nationwide Campaign

My biggest worry about Josh Shapiro was that the only thing he brought to the table was four counties in suburban Philadelphia (Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties). And yes, that’s important when everything hinges on the Electoral College. But that’s about all Shapiro brought.

As a non-elitist Midwestern myself, I can say Shapiro wouldn’t have played as well in Michigan, Wisconsin, and possibly even Ohio (watch this space). I’m not saying he would hurt, he just wouldn’t have an impact. If Democrats had chosen Shapiro, it would have been a “all chips on four Pennsylvania counties” strategy that would have doomed the campaign. Just ask Al Gore in 2000, trying to win Florida by winning votes in Palm Beach and Broward Counties.

As for Tim Walz, he plays everywhere. His story, demeanor, and the way that he speaks has nationwide appeal. The history teacher who is a football coach is about as Midwestern as you can get. Go to any restaurant in the rural Midwest and you will hear guys in their 80s still talking about how someone caught the winning touchdown to “take them to state”. See, it’s this kind of voter connection (thus understanding of voter behavior) that the likes of Nate Silver doesn’t understand, proving that he is truly nothing more than a poll aggregator.

Someone who is media savvy

He knows how to speak. He knows how to be emotional. He has a personal story to be told. He comes from the rural Midwest, where hard working, getting calluses on your hands, and earning an honest-day’s wage are the overriding values.

He also has the ability to speak off the cuff, doesn’t need to be spoon fed talking point, and can talk one-on-one with people in a way that normal people talk to one another. These qualities are also beneficial when being interviewed in a hostile environment.

Someone who can make a point without screaming

Walz has the ability to come across as a fighter without having to scream to make their point. In a political climate where people are tired of the yelling and screaming, this is important. As for Josh Shapiro, he was always screaming, almost coming across as Howard Dean back in 2004. It’s important to have someone who doesn’t look like they are unhinged. Walz does that, Shapiro doesn’t.

Someone who is a “Midwesterner”

This basically puts everything that I have said together. I’ve always thought that whatever candidate could win the average “Culver’s Voter” would be the candidate who would win the election. And Tim Walz just screams “Culver’s”.

But again, if we are talking about expanding the electorate, Walz’s Midwestern charm will play in almost all of the key states. I still wouldn’t be surprised if polls started to change in Ohio. Also, being born in Nebraska, this helps with that pivotal 1st Congressional District electoral vote.