Can Democrats take HD 35 in a special election?
Can Democrats take HD 35 in a special election?
With House District 35 possibly being up for grabs, what is the likelihood that Democrats will be able to take it back?
Taking a quick glance at Florida House District 35, it seems like one that the Democrats should win. It’s a district that goes both into Orange and Osceola Counties. And despite Osceola going Republican in the last election, registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the district. In addition, there are a large number of NPA voters in the district who are Hispanic, and usually lean Democratic.
However, reality is not quite the same.
While Republicans are dead last when it comes to voter registration in this district, the registration number are quite even. At the book closing for the last general election in 2022, NPA and minor party voters made up a plurality of voters at 36%, with Democrats making up 33%, and Republicans 31%. However, it’s districts like this, specifically in this area of the state, where Democrats tend to underperform in places where they should have a fighting chance.
Twenty years ago, in the newly-formed, Osceola-anchored House District 49, Democrats held a plurality of the registered voters, with NPAs second and Republicans third. For all intents and purposes, this district was considered a throw away by the Republicans, fully expecting the Democrat, Jose Fernandez, to be successful. However, John “Q” Quinones won the election with 54.1% of the vote. Quinones would retain the seat until Darren Soto won it in a special election in 2007.
While the current House District 35 might seem to be similar to House District 49 in 2002, it’s actually quite different. Yes, the registration number might look similar, but let’s look into the problems that any potential Democrat might face.
Voter Composition
Whenever people hear “Orange and Osceola” together, they think one thing, Hispanic voters. And while there are a lot of Hispanic residents living in the district, House District 35 still has a plurality of White residents. When redistricting was done, 65k of the voting age population was White, while only 40k were Hispanic. When it comes to registered voters, the gap slightly increases. Therefore, to look at this district and come to stereotypical conclusions about “Orange and Osceola” would be extremely shortsighted.
Voter Turnout
While registering voters is important, those registered voters only matter if they show up to vote. In 2022, Democratic voter turnout decimated the Democrats statewide. However, in House District 35, the results were somewhat mixed. In Orange County, where a majority of voters are located, the composition of Democrats that turned out was 38% of the total electorate, while only being 35.4% of the total registered voters. In much of the state, this number was actually inverted, with Democratic turnout composition dipping below their registration composition totals.
However, Republicans comprised of 35.6% of the voters who turned out. This is much higher than the 28.1% of their composition of the overall electorate. So, while voter turnout wasn’t horrible for Democrats here, it was much better for Republicans. And, as a result, most of the NPAs who voted in this election were Republican-leaning voters.
When it comes to race, the majority of the voters in Orange County were White. Of those who voted, 54% of the electorate was White, while only 25% of those were Hispanic, thus furthering the the point that this district, just because it’s in “Osceola and Orange Counties”, doesn’t mean it’s a majority Hispanic. With that being said, the largest single group of voters who voted in Orange County in 2022 were White Republicans, comprising of 26% of the overall voter turnout. White Democrats, the second largest group, were only 15% of the electorate, with Hispanic Democrats being only 11%
(Note: The only reason I am using Orange County numbers is because I don’t have the racial and partisan breakdown of the voter turnout in Osceola County. I have requested those numbers and will update this post when those are received. However, White Republicans dominate the electorate in the Osceola County part of the district).
Can Democrats win?
Yes.
Come on, when registered Republicans only make up 31% of all registered voters in the district, of course Democrats can win. However, it will be hard.
It’s not going to be hard because the numbers aren’t there. It’s going to be hard because Florida Democrats, from the state party, House and Senate Victory, to individual DECs and campaigns, are extremely, horribly, unbelievably bad when it comes to identifying and targeting voters. If Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse represented the pinnacle of voter identification and targeting, Florida Democrats are the Sizzler that’s been slapped with multiple health inspection violations. Seriously, Democrats are really, really bad at this!
Unfortunately, it hurts them in districts like this. Why? Well, someone, usually a consultant or field operative with no analytical or statistical skills, creates a “target universe” (regardless of persuasion method) telling candidates to target voters who have voted in “three out of the last four elections” and has a “DNC score above ____”. In almost every situation, these numbers are simply pulled out of their asses to sound smart. They usually can’t explain why they randomly picked these criteria for voter targeting. As a result, Democratic campaigns and parties wander around aimlessly, wasting time speaking to voters that could already be clearly identified if their methods were even elementary. This is the biggest problem that Florida Democrats have.
This is particularly the case when it comes to NPA voters. The 2022 election showed just how badly Florida Democrats identified NPA voters. And while all of the data (public data, I might add) is there to get a ballpark to fairly accurate IDing of NPAs, the Democrats seem to not have the knowhow to do this identification. This is a skill set that’s severely lacking in Florida Democratic consulting and party circles.
But yes, they can win. Of course. They just need to get the right people in place to make it work.