Macron's party about to get wiped out.
But can the left, not the right, claim victory?
Honestly, it’s kind of cute watching the French media talk about the upcoming legislative elections. From the political pundits to the college professor naïvely talking about how the “electorate will moderate” and that the “second tour will moderate the results” is amusing. You can tell that they have never gone through a Trump or a Brexit, and easily brush aside the possible as unlikely.
Well, welcome to the club, France.
Don’t worry, many of us were like you. We didn’t think Trump could win, but it happened. We didn’t think Brexit would win, but it happened. It’s now your turn.
Since President Macron dissolved the National Assembly, there have been plenty of headlines capturing “what will happen” in France. Will there be a right-wing domination in the election? Will Macron’s party lose seats, but be the kingmakers? Can the left actually get the most votes? Where will Republican voters go if they don’t follow their party’s leader? Will there be strategic voting?
Well, in the French media, yes, these are the headlines. But in the English-language media, not really. If you read any English-language media, they have already determined that the Rassemblement National is going to dominate the elections, and that 28-year old Jordan Bardella is going to be the next Prime Minister of France, dethroning the elderly 35-year old Gabriel Attal. For some reason, English-language media (especially in the US) are obsessed with anything “right-wing”. But in today’s article, we’re going to look at some of the numbers and see how this election might play out.
The European Union Elections
Of course, if you are reading this article, you probably know the results of the recent European Union election in France, so I’m not going to go into it. Suffice to say, the Rassemblement National did quite well. However, there are two things that are important to point out when looking at those European Union elections. Firstly, they only have one round of elections, unlike French elections. And secondly, the left parties ran individually instead of as a “New Popular Front” as they are right now. Therefore, looking at the EU numbers on a party-by-party basis is flawed.
But thanks to Le Monde, there is now a map that looks at how each of the legislative coalition parties performed by district (or circonscription) if they had been in their current legislative coalitions. Below is a map of the results, with the brown being won by the Rassemblement National, and the redish pink for the New Popular Front.
We really can’t tell much from looking at the map. But if we just look at these results, we see that Marcon’s Ensemble coalition is in big, big trouble.
Problems for Macron
According to the results from the map provided by Le Monde, had these results actually been the legislative election results, Ensemble would have only made it to the 2nd round in 45 of the 577 circonscriptions. This number could have been a little higher, but with Ensemble not having candidates in a number of seats, the number is lower.
This is the biggest reason why the “the second tour will moderate the legislature” argument doesn’t hold water. There is a high likelihood that an overwhelming majority of Ensemble’s candidates don’t even reach the second round. Of course, there can be some movement in the election (for a number of reasons we will get to shortly), but the EU results are only slightly deviating from the legislative polls. And since this election is only a few weeks after the EU election, it’s extremely highly unlikely that voters’ minds will change.
First round elected candidates
One of the things to watch on June 30th are the amount of candidates who are elected in the first round. If we look at the EU election results and replicated them as legislative results, 65 candidates could be elected outright on in the first round. This is a far cry from the four elected in the first round in 2022, but also a far cry from the UMP’s 98 seats gained in the first round in 2007. However, those numbers can change.
The interesting thing about the first round is that the New Popular Front seem to be in the driver’s seat. Of the 65 districts that had one coalition over 50% in the EU elections. 53 of them are from the NFP, while only 12 are for the Rassemblement National. This could possible impact the narrative going into the second round, but that would simply be a guess.
Most 2nd round elections between the NFP and RN
Again, looking at the EU results at the circonscription level and using that as our guide for the legislative election, 460 of the 577 2nd round elections would be between the New Popular Front and the Rassemblement National. Thirty six would be between the New Popular Front and Ensemble. Eight would be between the Rassemblement National and Ensemble. Five would be between the New Popular Front and The Republicans. And only one, Paris’s 14th Circonscription (which is not the same as arrondissement) pits Ensemble against Republicans. Only one!
This also means that, based on the EU results, the NFP will have 555 candidates either moving onto the 2nd round or elected in the 1st round. As for the Rassemblement National, they would only have 481 moving on or elected. It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to see that this is a gap of 74.
Could the left actually win?
It’s too early to tell right now. But with the English-media’s attention focused on the far-right, they are ignoring what might be a win by the left. As just mentioned, the left looks as if they might have an overwhelming majority of their candidates moving to the second round or elected. On top of that, in the EU elections, the NFP had over 40% in 123 of the circonscription, with the RN at 126. Therefore, this is a lot closer of an election than one might expect.
What could change…and will it?
There is one big caveat when it comes to looking at EU results to determine legislative outcomes, and that’s that they are not the same elections. In many cases, the EU elections can be seen as a “protest vote”, with voters feeling that there aren’t any real consequences when it comes to their vote in Europe. On the other hand, legislative (as well as presidential) elections have a direct impact on their lives. Therefore, voting habits might be slightly different in these upcoming elections than in the European ones.
Another thing to look for is the possibility of strategic voting. As mentioned early, Ensemble doesn’t have candidates running in a number of circonscriptions, which means that their voters will have to decided where to go. They probably won’t go to the RN, but could go to the Republicans or to the NFP (which looks more moderate this time around with the Socialist Party having much more of an influence on the coalition).
However, when it comes to the Republicans, that’s another can of worms, with the party split between party president Eric Ciotti, who has committed 63 candidates to run with the RN, and dissident Republicans, who opposed the move. Therefore, these Republican voters could either stay with the Republicans, or go over to the RN or Ensemble. Anything is possible, but Gabriel Attal is probably hoping for just enough Republicans to come over to his side the put Ensemble into the 2nd round.
Then there is the situation with Reconquête. Could those voters defect over the the RN, pushing them over the top in the first round of many elections? As of right now, there are about 15 circonscriptions where a Reconquête defection could determine whether the RN goes to a 2nd round or not. And, ironically, Marion Maréchal, niece of Marine Le Pen, who defected from the RN to Reconquête in 2022, has now said that Reconquête should unite with the RN, which has now led to her expulsion from Reconquête. Yeah, confusing.
Anything could happen in this election, but it does seem that Ensemble is headed toward a major defeat. In the end, they could have less seats in the National Assembly than the Socialist Party had in 2017, which saw a loss of 286 seats, leaving them with only 45 seats total.
I’ll have some models coming out in the coming days.
Thank goodness you speak and read French well. I love France but the language has eluded me, despite trying