Is Pennsylvania going "red"? Well, not really.
While polling data shows Pennsylvania as a more likely Trump state, actual data states otherwise.
The most baffling battleground state this election cycle has to be Pennsylvania. Once part of the so-called “Bule Wall”, Pennsylvania appears to be more red than blue this election cycle, according to most recent polls. While the traditional “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin and Michigan are starting to be solidified by the Democrats, Pennsylvania is stubbornly sitting in that purple middle ground, not wanting to budge either way.
So, what should we make of Pennsylvania? Is it as close as most think? Let’s delve into why it might appear more Republican, though it might not necessarily be so.
First of all, Pennsylvania is becoming more Republican as far as voter registration. According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, the number of registered Democrats between November of 2020 and August of 2024 has been reduced by 91,582. Conversely, the number of registered Republicans during that time has increased by 106,339. This makes the once 6.3% gap between the two parties now only a 4% gap, still favoring the Democrats.
While this might seem like a significant fall for Democrats, it might not be as bad as it seems. First, this could just be a natural sorting of the vote, due to party changes and purging of the voter roll. Remember, “purging” isn’t necessarily bad, as it usually removes inactive voters, many of whom have moved to another address or have passed away.
Secondly, it seems that many voters registering as “nonaligned” are trending Democratic. In Allegheny County, for example, the percentage of registered Democrats has gone from 60.2 in 2012 to 57.3% in 2020. However, the Democratic vote share for president has gone up, from 56.5% for Barack Obama in 2012 to 59.4% for Joe Biden in 2020. Therefore, while the number of registered Democrats has decreased, the vote share for Democrats is going up.
Speaking of regions, let’s dispel some of the myths, or at least stereotypes, that pontificators have about Pennsylvania. The first myth is that Democrats have had a collapse in the Greater Pittsburgh area. While Hillary Clinton did underperform in this region in 2016 (losing the region by 4.8%), the vote has remained steady when comparing 2012 and 2020. In 2012, Romney won the region by 1.2% in 2012, while Trump won the region in 2020 by 2.3%. Also, considering that the Greater Pittsburgh region is only 20% of the overall vote in the state, this 1.1% vote shift doesn’t have a huge impact on the overall electoral picture.
One of the reasons why people might think that the Greater Pittsburgh area is “shifting” is that when looking at an electoral map of the region, most of the counties have shifted red. However, this is mostly just a readjustment of the vote, with Alleghany County becoming more Democratic, and neighboring counties becoming more Republican. The region as a whole hasn’t seen any significant changes.
Another region that is talked about is Philadelphia and the suburbs. This region is extremely important for Democrats, as it accounts for about 44% of their total statewide vote. However, as far as electoral performance, the region has remained quite stable. Composing of 33% of the state’s overall electorate, Barack Obama won 65.1% in “Philly and the burbs” in 2012. Hillary Clinton took 64.2%, and Joe Biden won 66.0%. Overall, the region has remained pretty stagnant.
There is one problematic issue with this region, and it’s that Democratic support is relying more on the quickly-shifting Democratic counties of the suburbs (Chester, Delaware, Bucks, and Montgomery), while support in the City of Philadelphia itself is starting to wane. Barack Obama won 85.2% of the city in 2012, with a 62.8% turnout rate. In 2020, Joe Biden won 81.2% of the vote with 65.9% turnout. That is only a net gain of 15,369 votes in the largest county over the span of eight years. Conversely in the same timeframe, in Fayette County, which has only about 7% of the registered voter population of Philadelphia, Republicans have gained 15,223 votes. When smaller, seemly insignificant counties start cancelling out gains made by Democrats in their stronghold, then it becomes quite concerning.
The one region that is being ignored, and that is probably the biggest reason that Pennsylvania has become a true swing state, is the Northeast and Lehigh Valley region. In 2012, Barack Obama won the region by 0.2% over Mitt Romney. But in 2016, the region totally collapsed, with Hillary being trounced by Donald Trump by 21.9%! Democrats were able to recover a little with so-called “local boy” Joe Biden only losing by 17.7%. Between 2012 and 2020, Democrats have only gain 7,205 votes in the Northeast, while Republicans have gained 127,189. It’s this region alone that won Donald Trump Pennsylvania’s electoral votes in 2016.
Still, this is where we start seeing some good news when it comes to polling. In the most recent New York Times/Siena poll, released August 10th, Kamala Harris is winning 43% of this region. This would put her well ahead of both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. If she’s able to win 43% of the Northeast/Lehigh region, and everything else remains stagnant (which all indications, as mentioned previously, seems to be the case), then it’s game over, Democrats win Pennsylvania.
Another overlooked shift, which benefits Democrats, is that counties that are gaining more voters are becoming more Democratic. Let’s take Montgomery County for example. Republicans have seen a 6% decrease in their vote share between 2012 and 2020. However, the number of registered voters has increased by 11%, providing Democrats more of a gap, helping in the statewide vote total. The same trend is happening in Chester, Cumberland, Delaware, Bucks, and Lancaster Counties. This explains why the Philly suburbs are now holding the water for the Democrats.
As for the aforementioned Fayette County, Republicans have seen a 13% increase in their vote share, but the number of registered voters have decreased by 10%. That makes the situation in City of Philadelphia look even sadder. In fact, of the 19 counties where the Republicans have seen an increase in vote share, eight of them have seen a loss in total voters, while only two counties, Carbon and Luzerne, have seen a double-digit increase, 20% and 14% respectively.
Speaking of Luzerne County, a county that the Democratic gubernatorial candidate has won since 2014, one should not assume that the 2022 results for Josh Shapiro can be replicated in the presidential race. Over the last three gubernatorial elections, the Democratic candidate for governor has outperformed the presidential ticket two years before. Tom Wolf won Luzerne County twice, and Josh Shapiro won it by 1.1%. However, Biden lost it by 14.4%. So, any hopes of replicating Shapiro’s 2022 results should be thrown right out the window. And if you think that being the VP pick could help “deliver” Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris, ask Paul Ryan how well that worked in Wisconsin for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Overall, the Democrats have their work cut out for them. But still, they are more in a position of advantage than the Republicans. If the Democrats can improve their overall vote totals in Philadelphia, that will help significantly. If Harris is able to win 43% in the Northeast/Lehigh region, as recent polls indicate, it’s game over.
I do want to point out(again) that Jon Fetterman lobbied against Josh Shapiro heavily behind the scenes.
I also want to suggest that despite the Lehigh Valley NOT being part of the Midwest I think it is worthwhile to send Tim Walz there and at least give him a shot in the region.